Podcast with Heather West, Research Manager at IDC

Transcript

Yuval Boger: Hello, Heather, and thank you for joining me today.

Heather West: Well, thank you for having me. This is a great opportunity.

Yuval: So, who are you, and what do you do?

Heather: I am a Research Manager at IDC, and I work in our Infrastructure Systems Platforms and Technologies group. My primary focus of research is quantum computing. In fact,  I lead our quantum computing research at IDC. However, I am very fortunate to work alongside our Group Vice President and General Manager, Ashish Nadkarni, and Research Vice President, Peter Rutten. We launched the quantum computing research at IDC in 2018. Since then, we’ve been on this wonderful ride of learning about quantum and meeting and working with people within the quantum ecosystem.

Yuval: Guests that come on this podcast are typically from the quantum industry. So they think that quantum is the most important thing in the world. But you speak with enterprises that have other issues as well. Where does quantum rank in their priorities?

Heather: I also contribute server and storage infrastructure workload research, and I assist Peter with AI research as well. So, I get to talk to a variety of different end users, in addition to those that I speak to regarding our quantum research. Back in 2018, when we began researching quantum, there were very few enterprises and companies that were even thinking about what quantum computing is. It was still more of an academic technology. Over the course of the last four years, we began to see IT developers beginning to take an interest in quantum computing because they saw it as a way to solve these problems that they just couldn’t solve using their current classical compute technology.

That is how  a lot of quantum initiatives within the early adopter enterprises started. Curious IT developers began to experiment with technology to figure out how to use it in their own IT department, as well as how to make a business case that would filter up to the executive level. More recently, what we’ve begun to see is another transition where executive-level stakeholders within enterprise companies are starting to understand the value that quantum computing will bring in the long term. Now we’re starting to see interest among executive level stakeholders who understand that this is a long-term investment that they should start thinking about and experimenting with today so that they can gain from its value once that fault-tolerant computer is realized later.

Yuval: What does the typical experimentation look like? Is that a two or three-person team and a little bit of cloud time, or is that a more systematic effort to identify use cases to contract with vendors and so on?

Heather: That really is very dependent on the company. Some companies understand that this is a long-term endeavor. To gain the best value from using quantum computing in the long-term entails developing a strategic plan with a road map that details how they will identify use cases, build quantum algorithms and applications, and more. Having a roadmap will help define a process so that they can gain the value they want when the fault-tolerant machine is realized. As a result, those companies tend to invest more into their quantum computing initiatives. However, these percentages still tend to be less than 10% of their IT spend.

These companies are establishing a quantum computing champion or a quantum research group to educate other organizational stakeholders about quantum. This education can include technical training for IT developers who need the skills and other resources to program quantum applications and algorithms, as well as manage the classical and quantum infrastructure needed to execute quantum programs. This training also can include improving the quantum awareness of executive stakeholders who might need a better understanding as to the business value that quantum will bring and expectations for when these advantages might be realized. Some executives are still really focused on that short-term ROI versus the long-term. So in that respect, having a quantum research group helps to establish a well-defined process for how quantum is being adopted. 

Other companies are at the beginning of their quantum computing journey with IT developers understanding that this technology is going to be an industry disruptor that can assist them in solving those intractable problems that just are out of scope for classical compute at this particular point in time. Perhaps, there are a few  individuals within these IT departments that  are taking it upon themselves to either self-educate or experiment with the technology, as well as trying to convince others within the company that this is a technology which really should be a focus within the company. There is really a continuum of where companies are in their quantum journeys from those who are really well structured, and those are just a couple of individuals within the IT department trying to drive the process.

Yuval: You spoke about a quantum champion, and I’m curious if you see a pattern, where does this quantum champion sit? Is that in the IT department? Is that in a business unit? After all, quantum could potentially impact many areas, or maybe it’s in the security department where they worry about quantum security. Where would that championship?

Heather: Well, the best example that I’ve heard when talking to various end users is a quantum research group that represents all the different departments of the company,  the business area, the executive level, the security, etc., because once stakeholders within the organization start to realize what quantum is and what the potential advantages of using quantum could be, then everyone has a problem they want to try to run on quantum. By including members of these various stakeholders in the quantum research group, the enterprise can better determine where some of the largest problems exist, which problems would be best suited for quantum with regards to delivering a business value in the future, which use cases are more in line with the mission of the organization, etc. So that’s how I’ve seen the best use of a quantum champion. Because as you said, when you have one person who’s trying to represent the whole company, that can become problematic in trying to understand all these other areas and their priorities.

Yuval: I’m sure there are many companies that rely on IDC as a trusted advisor, and I’m wondering what questions you are fielding from customers that they want answers from IDC? And I’m guessing some of these answers come in the form of general widely available reports. What reports are coming from IDC about quantum?

Heather: So we’re in the process of putting together an IDC MarketScape focused on core quantum computing hardware to determine which vendors are defining this particular market segment. The purpose of the IDC MarketScape is not to indicate vendor A is number one, vendor B is number two, etc., but instead determine who the market leaders are, determine some up-and-coming vendors that are developing and introducing innovative technology into the market, and more. 

We will also be releasing our second quantum computing forecast, I believe at the end of Q1, which will give an update to the forecast that we provided in November 2021. The Quantum Computing Market Forecast reports the current market growth and IDC’s expectations for the continued growth over the next five or so years. We will be publishing other reports as well, but these are a few of the larger reports that will be released in 2023.

Yuval: Do you see companies engage directly with quantum hardware vendors, or do they prefer to go through a cloud provider like Amazon Braket or Azure and then be able to work with multiple providers?

Heather: Both. The companies are still a little bit unsure as to which type of technology they feel would be best suited for the problems that they’re going to solve or that would be best suited for their industry, they tend to prefer working with cloud service providers offering quantum platform-as-a-Service offering that give access to quantum hardware developed by multiple providers. As I mentioned earlier, the fault-tolerant quantum machine is years out from being realized.  In that time period, we could see new technology being introduced which could provide new advantages. New quantum technology could be better suited for solving particular types of problems for particular industries, we just don’t know. So by investing or subscribing or working with a particular quantum hardware vendor, some companies get concerned that they will be subjected to vendor lock-in or even generation lock-in because they’re only working with one specific vendor’s hardware.

As a result, those organizations prefer to work with cloud service providers because it gives them exposure to multiple types of quantum hardware that’s being developed. It gives them access to the different types of qubit type technology that’s being developed. So, for instance, you might work with one particular cloud service provider that offers access to a superconducting as well as maybe a neutral atom as well as maybe a photonic. Those qubit technologies are quite different. In addition, cloud service providers also provide access to all the tools and resources that developers need to program quantum applications, as well as consulting services to assist with identifying quantum use cases and the actual process of learning quantum or becoming quantum aware. Using quantum platform-as-a-Service offerings from cloud service providers, enterprises also gain access to hardware-agnostic software that allows them to transition very easily between one type of quantum hardware type and another quantum hardware type. And as a result, they don’t have to risk investing in developing an algorithm or an application that works with one particular system but won’t with another.

Yuval: Have you seen companies that are disappointed in quantum that basically say it’s too early, it’s 30 years away? They used to say that about nuclear fusion, and look what happened, right? But do you see companies that are disappointed in quantum or not yet?

Heather: I wouldn’t say disappointed. I would say hesitant. I think it’s too early to say disappointed because the technology is so early in development that enterprises are in this exploratory stage of figuring out what quantum is and what advantages it can bring. Perhaps the most frequent questions that I still hear are: What is quantum? Why should I be investing in it? What use cases or problems are most applicable for quantum computing? Because so many of the companies that we speak with are still in those very early phases of exploration, I don’t know there is disappointment per se.  I definitely think quantum is regarded as more of a risk with regard to why companies should be paying attention to a technology that is still very unstable. There’s a lot of work that needs to be done with it. There’s a lack of consensus as to which technology will be the winner, if there is a winner, when quantum advantage will be realized. 

Yuval: Do you see a big push to integrate quantum into the high-performance computing center? And do you see that primarily as a cloud-based integration or on-premise?

Heather: This is a topic that is coming up more and more, the potential to integrate quantum with HPC. This conversation really started to gain momentum about six months ago, maybe a little bit longer than that. Before that, companies were primarily questioning what is quantum good for? What are these use cases? But we have started to hear more and more about its integration with HPC. There are a couple of different approaches that companies are discussing. Organizations that are really concerned with security and concerned with performance would like to have an on-premise system which is in close proximity to their HPC systems. However, quantum computing systems are very complex to maintain and run. So, on-premise installments provide some challenges in itself. Additionally, a lot of the hardware vendors themselves would prefer to give access in the cloud until they are able to resolve some of the issues surrounding the hardware development itself.

There are some quantum hardware vendors to do offer some on-premise options. Overall though, end users do prefer to access quantum hardware via the cloud. In addition, cloud service providers are making trying to ease the integration of their classical compute infrastructure with its quantum computing cloud-based service because they know that their customers are familiar with that interface. By integrating their classical, specifically HPC, and quantum compute initiatives using one cloud provider service, enterprises have less worry about some of the security because that’s already being taken care of by the cloud service provider. So, in answer to your question, the preference for on-premise and cloud deployment for quantum really varies from company to company, each with their own pros and cons.

Yuval: Do you see opportunities for cloud service providers, even new data center providers, to actually use quantum as a magnet to say, we’ve got this, a great quantum computer in our data center, so now you should move some of your classical compute to us for ease of integration?

Heather: I have heard some cloud service providers putting that out there as a marketing technique. I will say that’s a new message that I’m starting to hear. I think connecting the dots is, again, something that’s a fairly new conversation. If you’re going to be using a cloud-based classical compute system, and the data which is going to be used for quantum computing already lives in the cloud, it makes sense to use a quantum system that is operating on the same platform.

Yuval: You’ve been covering quantum for a number of years. What do you know today that you didn’t know six months ago? What’s new?

Heather: So I try to keep up with quantum as much as possible, but every day, every week there’s a new announcement coming out from a new hardware vendor, from a new software vendor. It’s just an amazing time right now in quantum with all the advancements. So every day, I’m learning something new. I think what we saw this past year in 2022 was a bigger emphasis on post-quantum cryptography, and the reason why we’re hearing more about post-quantum cryptography is because we’re at this inflection point between where quantum has primarily been an academic technology, but is now moving towards commercialization, though it is not ready for commercialization. More executive-level stakeholders starting to become quantum aware. As a result, they’re starting to understand what quantum is and that it can solve these really difficult problems.

However, they are also starting to make the connection that one of these most difficult problems quantum will be able to solve has to do with security and how we encrypt our data at this particular point in time. Hence, we have started to see more of an emphasis and a concern about post-quantum cryptography and what enterprises should do at this point in time to start protecting their data now so that it won’t get stolen, and then later decrypted later. 

Another area that is starting to become more popular is quantum networking and communication. Obviously, there’s been research that’s been done on that. This is not new to quantum, but with the conversations surrounding scaling, and in particular using modular architecture to scale these machines in the future, comes the conversation regarding how to connect the quantum machines? What does that connectivity look like? The answer seems to be quantum networking and quantum communication. This is an area that I’m excited to learn more about as we start hearing more and more about how these architectures will start to be developed and introduced.

Yuval: As we get close to the end of our conversation today, I’m wondering what IDC advises customers with regard to full stack versus best-of-breed vendors. Is it best to go to a single vendor that has hardware and software and consulting, and what have you, or should an enterprise contract multiple vendors and try to get them to integrate with each other?

Heather: That’s a difficult question. So if there is a particular vendor that a company’s been working with, and that’s where they get most of their classical compute and they feel most comfortable working with that vendor, then perhaps that is the right option for them. They feel comfortable. They’ve developed this relationship, it’s a trusted partner. Perhaps the quantum specialists that are working for that particular vendor also have the subject knowledge that is needed to help develop the quantum programs for that specific vertical. So maybe that is the benefit.

For those companies that are still unsure about quantum, about the types of technology suitable for their particular problems, or are just starting out, it may be best for these companies to subscribe to the quantum computing platform-as-a-Service offering from a cloud service provider. These offerings will provide the flexibility for experimentation with regards to the hardware that is currently available, which of today’s quantum hardware works better now for running small instances of quantum applications. So I think it really just depends on the comfort level. 

Yuval: I want to ask you a hypothetical question. If you could have dinner with any of the quantum greats, dead or alive, who would that person be?

Heather: Oh goodness. There’s such concern about security. I think Peter Shor would be a great person to have dinner with, to just to ask him, what do you think? You developed this algorithm that now has prompted all these concerns. What are your thoughts? Would you do it over again? How would you guide people? That’d be an interesting conversation, I think.

Yuval: Perfect. How can people get in touch with you to learn more about your work?

Heather: People can reach out to me through LinkedIn. I’m also on Twitter, and they can contact me through my email:  hwest@IDC.com.

Yuval: Excellent. Heather, thank you so much for joining me today.

Heather: Well, thank you so much. This is a great opportunity. We’ll have to do this again soon.

Yuval Boger is an executive working at the intersection of quantum technology and business. Known as the “Superposition Guy” as well as the original “Qubit Guy,” he can be reached on LinkedIn or at this email.

January 30, 2023