Global Quantum Intelligence (GQI) has just published a report titled The Road to Shor Era Quantum Computing in partnership with the NATO Innovation Fund (NIF). This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of quantum computing and identifies the key factors that will determine the emergence of a dominant design able to break RSA 2048 encryption standards.
An Executive Summary of the report is provided in the text below. But to get the complete picture, one should review the full 183 page detailed report. This report provides that best picture anywhere of where the technology is today and describes the many challenges that still need to be overcome in order to produce a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRCQ). It is available for sale on the GQI website here.
Executive Summary
Quantum technology, and quantum computing in particular, promises to be a key driver of future economic opportunities and geopolitical advantage. A large number of quantum platforms are currently being pursued by developers around the globe, each with their own roadmap to scale-up their system and targeting a wide variety of high profile applications. However all current developers still face significant challenges and the race remains open. What can be said to inform investment decisions and priorities along this journey?
This report adopts the benchmark of a system capable of using Shor’s algorithm to break RSA 2048 as the criteria against which to assess roadmap challenges. It argues that a system meeting this large scale test will be a strong contender to become the dominant quantum design, securing major economic advantages. We analyze the criteria required to assess roadmaps against this target, and develop a framework for how investments in this journey can be assessed.
To date, many quantum roadmaps have prioritized demonstrating short term incremental progress. We argue that long term investors should want to see the most difficult roadmap challenges targeted early, rather than left as issues for later stages of the journey. The inflection points this could unlock have the potential to accelerate the field.
Quantum Technology is the largest paradigm shift in a generation. Our most fundamental description of nature, quantum mechanics, unlocks completely new resources not available via any other existing technology: true randomness, superposition and entanglement. Ultimately quantum tech, including computing, communications and sensing, will have a wide impact across all industry sectors. It will strengthen and accelerate other deep tech sectors, including biotech, AI & machine learning, robotics, crypto, blockchain and space.
Quantum computing (QC) is the most high profile sector of quantum technology. Quantum hardware itself is set to be comparatively slow compared to other modern computing hardware, but instead it gains its power from the unique algorithms it can implement. Benefiting from an exponentially expanded computational space and natively embodying the unique statistics of entanglement, it promises to perform certain computations beyond those practical on any Turing machine (i.e. any conceivable conventional computer). This is a new computing capability. The potential synergy it brings in simulating nature, quantum-simulating-quantum, is particularly compelling for many experts.
Many challenges remain. In particular, the power of intermediate scale quantum computers remains unproven. Some hope for significant commercial benefits with such systems. However, many believe that substantial benefits will require much larger systems. These will use quantum error correction (QEC) to deliver fault tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). Such devices will ultimately be capable of trillions of quantum operations (the teraQuop regime) and beyond.
The NATO Innovation Fund (NIF) exists to help deep tech entrepreneurs in participating Allied Nations to tackle long term challenges such as this. It sees the quantum sector as a priority opportunity for such investment. In joint work, GQI and NIF have developed an approach to evaluate long-term quantum developer roadmaps.
Shor’s algorithm for cryptanalysis provides a useful example of a well studied quantum algorithm with clear applications. Large scale quantum systems are expected to be able to break many of the public key cryptographic protocols in common use today in business and the Internet. We use the development of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC), capable of breaking RSA 2048 encryption within a 1 day window, as a suitable benchmark against which to assess what it takes to create a truly large scale machine. Its significance however isn’t just in its own utility, but also as a marker for other applications that machines of this scale are expected to be able to realize.
It is common to say that ‘no one knows which platform will win this race. While GQI agrees with that overall assessment, we think that much can be said to inform the journey and at least rank the field. Particularly if we clearly identify that the goal is large scale computation. Against this background it is possible to identify the main challenges particular players face, and what are the time horizons within which their roadmaps seek to resolve them.
This report discusses the challenges at different layers of the tech stack in detail. We find that the baseline designs across all major qubit platform approaches still have many challenges to face (pink below). There are also potential disruptors, strategic questions or opportunities that could affect roadmaps across the sector (green below).
In particular we have identified potential inflection points, major advances that could significantly accelerate further progress.
- Scalable Modules – The sector needs to move beyond a selective focus on individual hero metrics, and isolated devices. We need to see this in robust multi-qubit devices with performance delivered across all required quantum operations within realistic speeds and a balanced and targeted error model. If these devices can also be provided with high quality couplers or interconnects; then that could open up dramatic progress via modular scaling. Conversely, without provision for the later, scaling potential is ultimately limited.
- Efficient Fault Tolerance Schemes – We don’t dismiss the possibility that the well studied surface code may ultimately be the way we support QEC for large scale quantum computers. However we, and many in the field, are also excited about the disruptive potential of new novel QEC codes with dramatically higher encoding rates. More work is still required in fleshing out the practicality of the more demanding code cycles these require; enhanced connectivity (at reasonable rates and speeds) is probably key. Above all we need to see fault tolerant gate schemes defined and validated on top of these codes. Hidden in the detail are enticing opportunities to further reduce the overheads wired into other approaches (e.g. from lattice surgery and magic state production).
- Major M&A – Looking across the sector, it’s easy to see that no individual player has all the best answers. There is a clear opportunity for value to be created by bringing together the best-of-breed technology and talent in new, and larger combinations. The pathway, vehicle and timing by which this will happen is less certain. Both industry and capital leadership are required. Unlocking substantial pools of capital to fund midscale growth to complete the quantum journey is a major upcoming challenge. Geopolitics is also set to shape this process.
- Hybrid Leap – It is already a tech industry trend to mobilize an hybrid mix of computing resources optimized to the problem at hand. The quantum computing sector has also realized for some time that a lot of classical computing power is going to be required just to make a quantum computer work. However we believe the opportunity runs deeper. In its early years, quantum computing has been dominated by a monolithic view of the available qubits. However, some of the most exciting recent quantum algorithmic progress (e.g. Lin-Tong in quantum simulation or Regev and Ragavan et. al. for cryptanalysis) has been explicitly built around breaking out large single quantum circuits into smaller pieces and moving parts of the algorithms onto classical resources. We believe that the provision of platforms able to support hybrid quantum/classical algorithm design, together with the opportunity presented by AI-assist, could unlock a new wave of algorithmic progress. Just as quantum hardware is expected to improve, quantum software improvements can play their part in closing the gap to quantum utility.
- Dominant Design – At the moment a plethora of different qubit technologies, and differing quantum platform designs are competing in the marketplace for attention and resources. We see the relative merits of these designs waxing and waning at different stages of scaling. Just as in the history of conventional semiconductors, we eventually expect a dominant design to emerge. We see building a CRQC as potentially the decisive battleground in establishing such a design. Once a clear forerunner and pathway is established, we expect investment and resources will drain away from the ecosystems surrounding other qubit platform technologies. Conversely the focus of resources will propel further a strong trajectory of continuing development.
It is important to realize that different ecosystem participants have different objectives. Entrepreneurs naturally believe in their own technology, though they must ultimately also have a realistic assessment of when it is necessary to partner and seek integration via acquisition. Governments may be more interested in encouraging the development and relevance of their own quantum ecosystem rather than directly picking winners. Investors however have to make more specific choices, and also need the evidence base to support that.
This report introduces the challenge pathway framework to allow different roadmaps to be compared. These face different scaling challenges and address them at different scales and time horizons of system development.
We find that this approach does provide useful calibration and differentiation of player approaches. We don’t claim that one challenge pathway profile is appropriate for all ecosystem participants or will meet the investment thesis of all investors. However, for those investors focussed particularly on the long-term, large scale opportunity we argue that addressing the main challenges as early as possible in the roadmap should be preferable (the green pathway in the diagram). This is in sharp contrast to many early roadmaps examples. These have often favored early demonstrations of progress, promising some early commercial return and so supporting the next funding round.
Quantum technology is set to continue its exciting journey to deliver our 21st century future.
December 6, 2024
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