by Amara Graps

It was a remarkable speech, those six-and-a-half-minutes of the former North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, speaking at the inauguration of the Deep Tech Lab – Quantum on 29 September 2023. 

A minute after describing the most effective defense technologies historically being led by governments, Mr. Stoltenberg described his visit to Ukraine, where the major contributions of the private sector (for example: cyber, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), private-public partnerships in Brave1) is behind many of Ukraine’s defense tech innovations. It was the most concise explanation of -why- the NATO Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic: DIANA, was created: NATO needs to act like a business. 

Mr. Stoltenberg’s speech may have hinted at the -timing- in which the NATO DIANA network was created: It was in the year 2023, after Ukraine did not “fall in three days” as some predicted. Conclusion: private sector defense contributions might even save nations. 

NATO has to think in new ways […] NATO needs to maintain a technological edge. […] said Jens Stoltenberg

About the Deep Tech Lab -Quantum:

I hope it’s a lot of good business but at least it’s very important for our security. –said Jens Stoltenberg

The NATO (DIANA) Deep Tech Lab -Quantum Accelerator

As we reported earlier, the NATO DIANA network (on the map) was established to propel technical innovation throughout the alliance. By utilizing cutting-edge technology and encouraging cooperation between NATO member states, startups, and private-sector innovators, DIANA focuses on developing dual-use technologies in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, autonomy, biotechnology, space, and cybersecurity. 

How important is quantum technology to NATO?  Cathal J. Mahon, Chief Business Officer of Deep Tech Lab -Quantum, explained that quantum is one of the first of NATO’s identified nine emerging disruptive technologies (EDTs), which emphasizes quantum’s importance to NATO. 

Why Denmark for NATO’s Quantum Technology Accelerator?

Deep Tech Lab -Quantum (DTL-Q) is in charge of overseeing the Accelerator for NATO’s Quantum Technology theme. DTL-Q is operated by the global BioInnovation Institute Foundation (BII), a nonprofit organization with about 100 employees, appointed by the Danish government, to foster innovation in quantum science and deep tech sectors.  While BII’s DTL-Q incubator is only about a year old, its Life Sciences Incubator has been operating since 2018. DTL-Q’s location can take advantage of Denmark’s world-class quantum physics research, at the Danish National Metrology Institute, Denmark’s Technical University, Aarhus University, and Copenhagen University’s Niels Bohr Institute.  

For additional justification of the choice of Denmark for NATO’s DIANA quantum technology activity, Lene B. Oddershede, Senior Vice President, at the Novo Nordisk Foundation, explained that 

Danish investment over a 5-year period is close to $1 billion. […] Denmark is a world leader in quantum materials, which can contribute to building the best computer with the best materials […] Moreover, investments are also directed towards other quantum technologies, such as quantum algorithms and quantum sensing.

GQI Business Quantum Support for Nonprofits

Although NATO is using business concepts such as incubators in its DIANA network, DTL-Q is run by a nonprofit. As a result, its emphasis will probably be towards mission-driven objectives instead of financial returns. 

If you’re a quantum technology nonprofit, then you may not have ready market information, for the quantum startups that you are evaluating and then advising. Here’s how GQI can help. 

In Michael Baczyk’s QCR article: GQI Guide for Investors, he described a Technological Road mapping of different quantum components, with descriptions of Scenarios,  such as ‘Eye of the Needle FTQC’ and ‘Accelerated Military QS Adoption’.  It is a way of seeing the Big Picture of one quantum component under a variety of scenarios.  I’ll reproduce those scenarios here for Reference. 

  • Broad NISQ Quantum Advantage: Near-term quantum devices deliver commercial value across diverse applications.
  • Hard Quantum Winter: Progress stalls, commercial applications struggle to materialize.
  • Broad Early FTQC: Multiple players achieve small-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing.
  • Eye of the Needle FTQC: Only the most robust approaches succeed in delivering practical FTQC.
  • Distributed FTQC: Large-scale quantum computing achieved through networked smaller modules.
  • Goliath FTQC: Very large, centralized systems required for meaningful quantum advantage.
  • Turbo FTQC: Dramatically improved FTQC enables even algorithms with modest speedups to become practical.
  • Quantum Safe Migration: Widespread adoption of post-quantum cryptography.
  • Quantum Resistant Networks: Development of communication networks resilient to quantum attacks.
  • Quantum Enabled Networks: Quantum technologies enhance network capabilities and security.
  • Quantum Internets: Fully realized quantum communication networks enabling distributed quantum computing.
  • Mission Based QS: Quantum sensing adopted for specialized, high-value applications.
  • Accelerated Military QS Adoption: Rapid integration of quantum sensors in defense applications.
  • Dual-Use QS Evolution: Quantum sensing technologies find widespread commercial and military use.

If you are a Defense Tech worker, who needs to evaluate quantum components, the Scenarios that would be useful for you are likely the bottom seven of the above Scenarios. 

For example, in the recent QCR Article about NATO’s Quantum Safe Future Transition, we read that one of NATO’s current quantum concerns is to transition their communications to quantum safe communications. Therefore, those components would be dominating the Timeline for the current year and through about 2034.  

Figure. GQI’s Market Timing or a Variety of Scenarios from its Strategy Playbook. (*)

(*) If you are a nonprofit, then the business information that can help you be a knowledgeable advisor about quantum technology is not out of reach. GQI organizes such information to fit your circumstances. If you are interested to learn more of GQI’s Playbooks, Quantum Technology Frameworks, and more, please don’t hesitate to contact info@global-qi.com. 

October 15, 2024