2024 has seen an unprecedented wave of quantum computing roadmaps, with thirteen players either announcing new development paths or significantly updating existing ones. Never before has the industry seen such a concentrated period of concrete technical commitments and public timelines, marking a shift from general promises to specific, measurable goals.

Recent Roadmap Announcements

The following list summarizes this year’s developments:

New Roadmaps

Adjusted Roadmaps

  • D-Wave (July 2024): Enhanced focus on quantum AI and machine learning applications.
  • IonQ (July 2024): Accelerated timeline targeting 99.999% logical two-qubit gate fidelity by 2025.
  • IBM (November 2024): Continued execution of existing roadmap with significant runtime performance improvements and new technical milestones.
  • Google (December 2024): Updated Milestone 3 target following Willow’s below-threshold demonstration, aiming to achieve 10^-6 logical error rates with 1,500 physical qubits.

Strategic Expansion

  • PsiQuantum (April 2024): While not a traditional roadmap, announced a landmark AU$940 million (US$620M) project to deliver a 1-million physical qubit system in Brisbane, Australia by 2027, representing one of the most ambitious quantum computing goals announced to date.

Key Performance Indicators for Quantum Computing Progress

Studying the announced roadmaps it can be observed that the industry has coalesced around several standardized metrics to track quantum computing progress. At the physical layer, two-qubit gate fidelity serves as a fundamental benchmark, with leading platforms now targeting the 99.9% to 99.99% range. Error rates are typically measured at both the physical and logical level, with logical error rate targets extending to 10^-6 or better. System performance is increasingly measured through operational metrics like Circuit Layer Operations Per Second (CLOPS), maximum circuit depth (number of sequential gate operations possible), and quantum volume. For error-corrected systems, the ratio of physical to logical qubits (often called the overhead factor) has become a critical metric, alongside the achievable logical operation rate measured in QuOps (Quantum Operations per second). Additional technical parameters include coherence times, gate speeds, mid-circuit measurement capabilities, qubit connectivity (average number of direct connections per qubit), and system cycle times. For scaled systems, interconnect performance metrics such as coupling fidelity, connection speed, and maximum distance are becoming increasingly important benchmarks.

A New Era of Accountability

What makes these 2024 roadmap announcements particularly significant is their level of technical detail and specific performance targets. This transparency creates a new framework for accountability in several ways:

  1. Quantifiable Progress: Instead of vague promises of “quantum advantage,” companies are now committing to specific numbers for error rates, qubit counts, and operational metrics.
  2. Technical Transparency: The inclusion of architectural details and specific implementation strategies allows for better evaluation of the feasibility of these roadmaps.
  3. Time-Bound Commitments: Most roadmaps now include specific yearly milestones through 2025-2030, creating clear checkpoints for progress assessment.

The next five years (2024-2029) will be crucial for the quantum computing industry. With these detailed roadmaps now public, the industry has entered what could be called an “era of delivery.” Success or failure will no longer be judged on incremental progress or isolated demonstrations, but on the ability to meet these published technical milestones on schedule. This new accountability framework will likely accelerate both technology development and industry consolidation, as it becomes clear which approaches are successfully meeting their stated goals.

How to evaluate published roadmaps – GQI’s take

In our recent report “The Road to Shor Era Quantum Computing,” published December 6th, 2024 in partnership with NATO Innovation Fund, GQI presents an updated framework for evaluating quantum computing roadmaps. We combine two key assessment tools: the GQI Hardware Stack, which examines technical progress across different components of quantum systems, and Secondary Competitive Differentiators, which analyze practical aspects like cost and operational efficiency.

For the unprecedented wave of 2024 roadmap announcements, we’ve enhanced our evaluation framework to focus on three fundamental challenges that must be overcome before quantum computing reaches its “Sputnik moment”: 1) achieving reliable error suppression through scalable error correction, 2) building universal fault-tolerant circuits that operate at practical speeds, and 3) demonstrating that platforms can scale to commercially useful sizes.

This enhanced framework specifically evaluates each company’s roadmap against their capability to eventually build a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) – one powerful enough to break RSA 2048 encryption within a day.

December 20, 2024

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