By Michael Baczyk
Quantum Computing is a high-stakes game
The recent news of PsiQuantum securing one billion Australian dollars in funding from both the Australian federal and regional governments has caused quite a stir in the tech world, sparking excitement and even controversy. This development has compelled even the most skeptical observers to acknowledge that quantum technology is poised to become the next major advancement in the tech industry. The PsiQuantum deal is just one example of the intensifying efforts from both commercial and national strategic perspectives. Quantum technology is already recognized as a significant value enabler and has secured a prominent position on key national agendas, particularly in the realm of cybersecurity.
According to the Global Quantum Intelligence QAM (Quantum Addressable Market) Engine, while the current Total Addressable Market (TAM) for Quantum Computing is still limited, projections for 2030 indicate that the market may approach 10 billion dollars and above 25 billion dollars in 2035. These predictions are based on a comprehensive study of quantum computing use cases and how their value will be realized by specific players in the value chain, considering all plausible scenarios that may unfold in the quantum landscape. Consequently, this figure represents the current best estimate, contingent upon the trajectory that quantum technology follows.
The total addressable market is divided into specific Quantum Computing use cases groups
In the coming years (2025-2030), we anticipate three potential scenarios in the Quantum Computing realm. The first and most optimistic scenario involves the realization of Broad Quantum Advantage, primarily due to advancements in error handling efforts. The second scenario entails the continuation of the current Quantum vs. Classical competition, characterized by claims of supremacy being issued and potentially subsequently debunked by other players in the field or enthusiasts. The third and more pessimistic scenario is the possibility of a Hard Quantum Winter.
Timeline represents various trajectories quantum tech market might take between now and projecting forward up to 2050
Nonetheless, as we continue to look ahead (recognizing that quantum is a domain for the patient and strategic thinkers), the end of the decade emerges as a critical intersection for many currently published roadmaps. We have previously reported and analyzed these roadmaps from industry leaders such as IBM, Microsoft, Pasqal, and QuEra.
Methodology of the overview
At Global Quantum Intelligence, we diligently track organizations involved in quantum technology worldwide. Our team analyzes the commercial progress of quantum computer vendors, large enterprises, quantum consortium initiatives, and academic breakthroughs achieved by universities, as well as private and government R&D institutes. For this study, we conducted a thorough examination of press releases, partnership announcements, and a vast array of scientific publications in peer-reviewed journals and those released on arXiv. By leveraging our extensive GQI database, we curated a truly global collection of organizations developing quantum computing use cases.
To ensure the integrity and relevance of our findings, we applied stringent criteria when classifying examples as use cases in this study. Each use case must demonstrate commercial relevance, provide hardware requirements, solve a specific problem, and detail the limitations of the approach. We intentionally exclude progress in algorithms or quantum subroutines, even in hybrid settings, as we consider these to be of more academic relevance. Our clients are primarily interested in the current state of the market, and that is precisely what we deliver.
The accompanying map illustrates the distribution of the 268 organizations we have categorized as quantum computing use case developers. While the United States carries the most weight on the graph, correlating with its leading position in terms of the number of quantum computing startups worldwide, Europe as a whole carries an equivalent weight. China and Japan are also well-represented, and the majority of the globe is covered, albeit in smaller proportions. This global representation is a clear indication that awareness of quantum computing is spreading across the world with 36 countries being represented.
What industries are already looking into quantum computing?
Our analysis encompasses 172 use cases across 8 industries: Security & Defence, Life Sciences, Infrastructure, Health, Financial Services, Energy & Resources, Chemicals & Materials, and Advanced Industries. We have also included a 9th group, Multiple Industries, for use cases with a broader scope and applicability range. Within each of these groups, we further segmented the use cases based on their implementation status.
The top three industries in terms of the number of use cases being developed are Advanced Industries, Financial Services, and Life Sciences, each boasting over 50 use cases. Chemicals & Materials and Energy & Resources closely follow the leading industries, with more than 30 use cases each. Infrastructure, Health, and Security & Defence have fewer than 10 use cases currently in development.
When examining the implementation status of these use cases, we observe that a significant percentage are toy demonstrations, accompanied by classical simulations, problem formulations, theoretical considerations, and speculations. This suggests that while there is substantial interest and effort being invested in quantum computing applications across various industries, many of these use cases are still in the early stages of development and have yet to be fully realized in practice. There are only a few cases marked as In Deployment.
Technological overview of Quantum Computing use cases
including problem domain, hardware modality and computational approach segmentation
Within each of the industries introduced in the previous paragraphs, we are particularly interested in the problem domains that researchers and developers are attempting to solve using quantum computing. We have identified four distinct problem domains: QML & Linear Algebra, Algebraic, Optimization, and Simulation. The left side of the figure illustrates the mapping of these problem domains to their respective industries. Optimization emerges as the largest group, with significant importance in Advanced Industries, Financial Services, and Energy & Resources. While QML & Linear Algebra applications also have a strong focus on finance, they tend to be more industry-agnostic, targeting Multiple Industries simultaneously. Simulation is the problem domain most frequently encountered in Chemicals & Materials and Life Sciences.
The right-hand side of the figure reveals that the majority of use cases aim to extract commercial value from quantum computing as quickly as possible. NISQy hardware and Quantum Annealers are the most widely used, and in terms of computational approaches, variational algorithms and quantum annealing algorithms account for more than half of the techniques employed.
On the other hand, the theory for fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) appears to be well-established, with some initial, highly promising commercial ideas and the underlying algorithms, such as Quantum Phase Estimation and Quantum Amplitude Estimation, offering theoretical guarantees.
This suggests that while near-term applications are currently the primary focus, there is a strong foundation being laid for the future of quantum computing, with FTQC approaches poised to deliver significant value once the hardware matures.
The inflection point for the industry is yet to come
Since 2015, Quantum Computing Report has been at the forefront of reporting on the latest advancements in quantum technology. The accompanying plot clearly illustrates the steady increase in the number of news articles, analyses, and Q-analyses published on the website over the years. This consistent linear growth may be interpreted as a reflection of the stable growth within the quantum industry itself, suggesting that the sector has yet to transition into a phase of exponential growth. As the quantum landscape continues to evolve, it will be fascinating to observe whether this linear trend persists or if we will witness a significant uptick in the rate of development and adoption in the coming years.
What are the conditions necessary for the quantum computing market to transition into exponential growth?
Global Quantum Intelligence has previously analyzed the challenges that quantum computing hardware must overcome, which include: code scaling for systematically suppressing logical errors, universal fault-tolerant circuits with realistic clock times, and platforms capable of scaling to commercially relevant sizes.
From a commercial perspective, there are several key indicators to watch for to ensure that opportunities are not missed as the technology rapidly scales:
- Increased interest in resource estimation: As hardware matures, companies will begin to assess whether the technology is sufficiently advanced to meet their needs. This heightened interest in resource estimation will be the first sign that an inflection point is approaching.
- Quantum computing use cases moving into production: A growing percentage of mature use cases that deliver daily commercial value will be a clear indicator of the market’s readiness for exponential growth.
- Technological advancements in use case algorithms: From a technological standpoint, observing an increasing number of use cases based on algorithms with guarantees, ensuring that the value cannot be obtained through existing solutions, will be the final and most significant sign to watch for. Use cases leveraging fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) primitives, such as Quantum Amplitude Amplification, Quantum Fourier Transform, or Grover’s search, will be particularly indicative of this shift.
May 6, 2024
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For those eager to explore the interactive quantum computing use case dashboard, which offers the ability to filter results by specific companies, geographies, technology approaches, or hardware compatibilities, please don’t hesitate to contact us at [email protected]. Our team will be delighted to provide you with access to this powerful tool, empowering you to delve deeper into the exciting world of quantum computing applications.
